Something strange is happening in B2B SaaS in Germany: Churn is up. So are new-logos. Almost across the board, almost everywhere. Everyone in the industry is patting their back for their successful marketing efforts.
There's no doubt we're seeing a boom in new founded companies. Germany just booked its strongest startup half-year on record. Over three thousand new companies in six months, more than all of last year. One in three has an AI hook. Every dashboard in the country wants to call it a boom.
Read the same number from the other side of the ledger.
That new company on your Starter plan was a badge on somebody's org chart last quarter. Established firms have gone quiet on hiring. Talent is founding instead of applying, not because founding got easier but because the salaried path got narrower. The seats you lost to enterprise churn did not evaporate. They walked across the street, incorporated, and signed up at retail pricing, minus the volume discount you used to give their old employer.
The math looks great on the new-logo dashboard. It looks brutal everywhere else. Payback periods stretch. Support load per euro of ARR rises. Your churn team and your growth team are not talking, because the org chart says they own different problems. They own the same problem, from opposite ends. Three thousand new German startups is three thousand seat reductions with a cap table stapled to the front. Nobody in your building has connected the two, because nobody's bonus depends on connecting them.
I think it's time to thank your marketing team for winning over plenty of new customers who have technically been users of your product all along.
Thoughts? Find me on Bluesky.